Академическое издательство «Гео»

Ice mass balance, glaciated regions, insolation, irradiance contrast, inter-latitude heat transfer, regression model, forecasting

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«Earth`s Cryosphere», 2018, Vol. XXII, № 4, p. 49-57

Forecasting glacier mass balance variations in glaciated regions of the Northern
Hemisphere

V.M. Fedorov

Lomonosov Moscow State University, 1, Leninskie Gory, Moscow, 119991, Russia; fedorov.msu@mail.ru

Correlation analysis revealing a relationship between regionally averaged mass balance series for nine glaciated regions in the Northern hemisphere and insolation contrast has been carried out. Based on the regression equation, the forecast of changes in the regionally averaged total mass balance of glacier ice has been performed for these regions until 2050. It has been determined that the degradation of the contemporary mountain glaciation is associated with the enhancement of the inter-latitude heat transfer caused primarily by a decrease in the angle of the Earth’s rotational axis tilt and concomitant increase in the meridional gradient of insolation (irradiance contrast).

Ice mass balance, glaciated regions, insolation, irradiance contrast, inter-latitude heat transfer, regression model, forecasting

DOI: 10.21782/EC2541-9994-2018-4(49-57)

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