### Risk assessment models for natural-technical systems

#### A.K. Cherkashin and N.E. Krasnoshtanova

cherk@mail.icc.ru, kne1988@rambler.ru
Geographical risk theory is formulated in terms of a generalized dynamical (logistic) model for the flow of elements of natural-technical systems in the space of geographical characteristics with due regard for the variability of internal and external environmental factors. The combined influence of the various factors is taken into account in the intensity index of failures of the elements of this system to perform their function. The suggested models adequately describe the different situations of risk emergence and management of its manifestation.

Keywords: natural-technical systems, dynamical model of risk assessment, failure intensity function, external and internal factors of risk management.