Академическое издательство «Гео»

Keywords: landscape ecology, topogeosystems, biological turnover, carbon balance, modeling, forecasting.



GEOGRAPHY AND NATURAL RESOURCES, 2010, № 1, p. 9-17

Forecasting modeling of the carbon balance for forest ecosystems of the Volga basin under global warming

E. G. Kolomyts, L. S. Sharaya, and N. A. Surova

Experience in landscape-ecological modeling of the biotic regulation of carbon cycle by forest ecosystems is outlined. Regional forecasting mapping of the carbon balance is based on landscape-ecological survey data using the method of hierarchical extrapolation. Empirical-statistical models are used to make forecasting estimates of the changes of the carbon balance components and of the respective influence of forest ecosystems on the carbon exchange of the terrestrial surface with the atmosphere according to the climatic scenario of global warming. It is shown that boreal and nemoral forests can have both a positive and a negative influence on the state of continental biosphere under global warming.

Keywords: landscape ecology, topogeosystems, biological turnover, carbon balance, modeling, forecasting.
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