Академическое издательство «Гео»

Russian Arctic seas, sea ice extent, annual, interannual and long-term variation, insolation, insolation contrast, correlation and regression analysis



KRIOSFERA ZEMLI, 2020, Vol. XXIV, № 3, p. 38-50

Evaluation of the effect of insolation factor on sea ice extent variability in the Russian Arctic

V.M. Fedorov, P.B. Grebennikov, D.M. Frolov

Lomonosov Moscow State University, Faculty of Geography,
1, Leninskie Gory, Moscow, 119991, Russia; fedorov.msu@mail.ru

Application of the correlation and regression analysis which enabled evaluation of the role of insolation factor in seasonal, interannual, longterm variations (including those unified for the Russian Arctic) of sea ice extent during the period of satellite observations (1979–2018) is discussed. The revealed correlation between long-term variations of annual and monthly values of sea ice extent and long-term variations of insolation contrast decreases with increasing spatial scale. The annual course is marked by a more stable and close relationship between seasonal changes in sea ice extent and seasonal variations of insolation (with phase shift for three months back). Annual variations of the phase shifted insolation also have a close connection with the seasonal variability amplitude of interannual variation of sea ice extent, with distribution of the coefficient of determination in regression models, and with seasonal changes in sea ice extent decline. The seas in central part of the Russian Arctic (Kara Sea, Laptev Sea and East Siberian Sea) are interpreted as the most conservative relative to the insolation factor, while the most remarkable response to variations of insolation and insolation contrast are reported from the marginal seas (Barents Sea and Chukchi Sea). Patterns of response to the insolation factor also differ considerably for these regions.

Russian Arctic seas, sea ice extent, annual, interannual and long-term variation, insolation, insolation contrast, correlation and regression analysis

DOI: 10.21782/KZ1560-7496-2020-3(38-50)

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