Академическое издательство «Гео»

Total ozone, sea ice extent, planetary albedo, insolation, insolation contrast, correlation, regression model, forecasting



KRIOSFERA ZEMLI, 2020, Vol. XXIV, № 2, p. 31-39

On the relationship between sea ice extent dynamics in the Northern Hemisphere and total atmospheric ozone

V.M. Fedorov, D.M. Frolov

Lomonosov Moscow State University, Faculty of Geography,
1, Leninskie Gory, Moscow, 119991, Russia; fedorov.msu@mail.ru

The sea ice extent dynamics in Northern Hemisphere and variations of solar irradiance at different altitudes of polar regions are considered as possible controls of total ozone variations in the atmosphere. It has been determined that annual variation of total ozone closely correlates with the annual course and long-term variations of sea ice extent in Northern Hemisphere. We used a regression model for forecasting total ozone column up to 2050. It has been revealed that the model concept of total ozone column should take into account the earth’s cryosphere effect (cryospheric factor) on variability of total ozone in the atmosphere. The cryospheric factor includes changes in the sea ice extent in the Northern Hemisphere and insolation variations at different altitudes in the polar regions.

Total ozone, sea ice extent, planetary albedo, insolation, insolation contrast, correlation, regression model, forecasting

DOI: 10.21782/KZ1560-7496-2020-2(31-39)

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