Академическое издательство «Гео»

Ice mass balance, glacial regions, insolation, insolation contrast, inter-latitudinal heat transfer, regression model, forecasting



KRIOSFERA ZEMLI, 2018, Vol. XXII, № 4, p. 55-64

Forecasting glacier mass balance variations in glaciated regions of the
Northern Hemisphere

V.M. Fedorov

Lomonosov Moscow State University, 1, Leninskie Gory, Moscow, 119991, Russia; fedorov.msu@mail.ru

Correlation analysis revealing a relationship between regionally averaged mass balance series for 9 glacial regions in the Northern hemisphere and insolation contrast has been carried out. According to the regression equation, the forecast of the changes in the regionally averaged total mass balance of ice has been performed for these regions until 2050. It has been determined that the degradation of the contemporary mountain glaciation is associated with the enhancement of the inter-latitudinal heat transfer caused primarily by a decrease in the inclination angle of the Earth’s rotation axis increasing thereby the meridional gradient of insolation (insolation contrast).

Ice mass balance, glacial regions, insolation, insolation contrast, inter-latitudinal heat transfer, regression model, forecasting

DOI: 10.21782/KZ1560-7496-2018-4(55-64)

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