Академическое издательство «Гео»

Permafrost regions, modeling, active layer thickness, variability, stochastic projection



KRIOSFERA ZEMLI, 2017, Vol. XXI, № 2, p. 3-10

Russian permafrost in the 21st century: model-based projections and analysis of uncertainties

O.A. Anisimov, V.A. Kokorev

State Hydrological Institute,
23, Second Line V.O., St. Petersburg, 199053, Russia; oleg@oa7661.spb.edu

The authors study sensitivity of the model-based active layer thickness in the European and Asian Russia permafrost regions to variations in air temperature, snow depth, and vegetation patterns. The model has been used to estimate current changes of active layer thickness between the 1961–1990 and 2004–2013 periods. The calculations were performed using a scenario of coupled climatic and vegetation changes for the mid-21st century. Model calculations took into account the input data uncertainty. According to the modeling results, by mid-21st century the largest increase in the active-layer thickness (30 ± 14 cm) relative to the mean for the 1961–1990 period can be expected in the industrially developed Yamal-Nenets district of north-western Siberia. Over most of the East Siberian permafrost regions, the projected changes in the active-layer thickness are 20 ± 10 cm.

Permafrost regions, modeling, active layer thickness, variability, stochastic projection

DOI: 10.21782/KZ1560-7496-2017-2(3-10)

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