Академическое издательство «Гео»

Climate change, mathematical modeling, geocryological prediction, permafrost dynamics, bearing resistance of the frozen ground



KRIOSFERA ZEMLI, 2007, Vol. XI, № 3, p. 3-13

Climate change and dynamics of the permafrost in Northwestern Russia
within the next 300 years

V.V. Klimenko, L.N. Khrustalev*, O.V. Mikushina, L.V. Emelyanova*, E.D. Ershov*,
S.Yu. Parmuzin*, A.G. Tereshin*

Moscow Power Engineering Institute (Technical University), 111250, Moscow, Krasnokazarmennaya str., 14,
Russia, nilgpe@mpei.ru
* Lomonosov Moscow State University, Faculty of Geology, Department of Geocryology,
119992, Moscow, Vorobyovy Gory, Russia, lev_kh@rambler.ru

The results of the annual and seasonal temperature modeling in the North-Eastern part of the European Russia and in the North of West Siberia are presented. Simulations are carried out on the basis of the new version of the regression-analytical climate model taking into account the relations between the regional temperatures and anthropogenic and natural factors. The model allows obtaining the regional temperature trends for the next centuries. According to these calculations, the temperatures in the Vorkuta and Nadym regions within the next 300 years will exceed the maximums of the instrumental climatic records, though remaining within the limits of millennial scale climate variations.
Presented modeling results of the atmosphere–lithosphere thermal interactions show a considerable influence of the climate warming on the thermal state of the lithosphere of the northern regions within the next centuries resulting in the permafrost degradation in the studied regions. That will affect the economical structure of the northern territories, causing their premature deterioration.

Climate change, mathematical modeling, geocryological prediction, permafrost dynamics, bearing resistance of the frozen ground
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