Академическое издательство «Гео»

Permafrost, climate, evolution, forecast, thawing and freezing depths

KRIOSFERA ZEMLI, 2007, Vol. XI, № 1, p. 29-36

Modeling and analysis of opportunities for the experimental control of the evolution of permafrost thermal conditions

S.P. Malevsky-Malevich, E.K. Molkentin, E.D. Nadyozhina, T.V. Pavlova, A.A. Semioshina

Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory, 194021, St. Petersburg, Karbyshev str., 7, Russia, rsb@main.mgo.rssi.ru

Analysis of the evolution of season thawing and freezing depths during the XX and XXI centuries under the climate change is performed. The climate data are simulated by means of the Global Climate Models (GCM). The calculated characteristics are compared with the summarized and published data of observations. The regionally averaged values of freeze/thaw depths are calculated for two vast regions of Russia. The difference between the regions is determined as the presence or absence of permafrost in the 0-3.2 m soil layer. The climate data simulated by means of HadCM3 give the opportunity to reproduce the observed evolution of thaw/freeze depths for the period of 1956-1990. The models can reproduce local monitoring data of seasonal thaw depth not for all regions of Russia. The anthropogenic effects in the evolution of the thawing depth are statistically significant from the second half of the XXI century. The annual evolution of temperature profile changes during the XXI century in the layer of 0-30 m is also simulated.

Permafrost, climate, evolution, forecast, thawing and freezing depths